by Robert Czulda, Assistant Professor at the University of Lodz (Poland)
Although Israel has carried out relentless military operations against Hamas for the past two years, the chances for lasting peace are extremely slim. On the contrary, it seems only a matter of time before violence erupts again. This time, not necessarily in Gaza, but on the West Bank.
Most discussions about the current Israeli-Palestinian situation focus on Gaza, which has been ruthlessly bombarded from the air and on the ground for over two years. According to Gaza’s Palestinian health minister, the death toll has exceeded 70 thousand people. The UN estimates that since the beginning of the conflict, around 92% of residential buildings, about 436,000 homes, have been damaged or destroyed.
Currently, a ceasefire is in place in Gaza, dividing the territory along a “yellow line” into two areas. The IDF occupies a strip between 1.5 and 6.5 kilometres from the eastern border, covering about 47% of the enclave. The remaining area is under the control of Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
Continuing Violence and Repression
Despite the ceasefire, violence continues. Hamas brutally suppresses real and suspected opponents to maintain control over the population. One of such victims was Yasser Abu Shabab, a prominent Palestinian militia leader of the so-called Popular Forces group. He was killed in early December 2025.
Israel, meanwhile, continues to destroy discovered underground Hamas infrastructure. BBC reports that since the ceasefire took effect, Israel has demolished over 1,500 buildings in areas under its control, even though the peace plan stipulated a suspension of all military operations, including airstrikes.
Hamas Remains a Threat
Israel has not, however, destroyed Hamas. The organisation has suffered heavy losses in personnel, lost experienced commanders, and much of its military infrastructure, including many rockets. These losses significantly limit its operational capacity, but they do not eliminate the threat or the organisation itself. According to Israeli data, Hamas’s numbers are roughly the same as before the war.
A resumption of hostilities is a real possibility. First, the Israeli government under Benjamin Netanyahu may be tempted by the upcoming elections in November 2026. Prolonging the war could postpone elections and a possible political defeat. In other words, maintaining tension around Gaza and escalating the conflict with Arabs, including Arab parties in Israel, may be a strategy to extend his rule. Hamas is also unwilling to pursue peace and rejects calls to disarm, a fact Israel could use as justification for renewed military action.
The West Bank – A Powder Keg
The real powder keg appears to be the West Bank. Since 2005, the Palestinian Authority president, Mahmoud Abbas, has held formal control there. Unlike Hamas, his supporters recognise Israel and its right to exist. Yet the Netanyahu government does not engage with the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, which remains the only entity that, despite internal problems, might have been capable of exerting control over Gaza.
The current Israeli government is heavily influenced by the far right, whose actions escalate the situation. These groups aim not only to retain the West Bank, referred to in Israeli discourse as Judea and Samaria, but also to support mass resettlement of Palestinians. They encourage radical Jewish settlers to build new settlements on the West Bank. Israeli media regularly report their aggressive actions, including attacks on Palestinians and the destruction of crops.
Controversial Settlement Projects
Under Netanyahu, the government has significantly expanded Jewish settlements on the occupied West Bank, approving new villages and legalising informal outposts since late 2022, with the trend intensifying after the outbreak of war in Gaza. According to the Office of the European Union Representative (West Bank and Gaza Strip, UNRWA), by the end of 2024 there were 502 thousand Jewish settlers in the West Bank and an additional 233 thousand in East Jerusalem.
For example, on August 20, 2025, BBC reported that “Israel gave final approval for a controversial settlement project that would effectively cut off the occupied West Bank from East Jerusalem and split the territory into two parts. Construction in the E1 area had been frozen for two decades due to strong international opposition. Critics warn the project will end hopes for a viable, contiguous Palestinian state. The defence ministry approved the construction of 3,400 homes in E1. Far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who proposed the project, stated that the idea of a Palestinian state is ‘erased.’”
Escalating Tensions on the West Bank
Tensions on the West Bank have been rising for some time, and the war in Gaza has only intensified them. For months, Israeli forces have conducted anti-terror operations, claiming the need to “combat Palestinian armed groups responsible for attacks on Israeli soldiers and Jewish settlers.” According to UN data, since the Gaza war began in October 2023, “Israeli soldiers or settlers have killed over a thousand Palestinians on the West Bank, including members of armed groups and civilians.” Israel reports that “at least 44 Israelis, both soldiers and civilians, have been killed in Palestinian attacks or during Israeli military operations.”
Both Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas cells remain active on the West Bank. For example, in early December, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad “released a video showing a lab for improvised explosive devices, where militants construct explosives intended for use against IDF soldiers.” In recent weeks, Israel has arrested dozens of people accused of working with these organisations.
The tense situation is evident not only in numerous arrests or executions of Palestinians, such as the killing of two unarmed men in Jenin in late October 2025, but also in attacks on Israeli soldiers and settlers, who respond in kind. For example, on November 18, near Gush Etzion, a 70-year-old Israeli was killed and three others were injured. Two 18-year-old perpetrators “drove a car into a group of civilians at an intersection, then got out and tried to attack them with knives.” The attackers were shot by nearby reservists.
A Dangerous Future
It is on the West Bank, where hatred and aggression are reaching dangerous levels, that the risk of violence remains critically high. Within the Israeli government, there is likely also a temptation to strengthen the settlers’ position through facts on the ground. Further chaos could benefit Netanyahu’s team, securing his place in history as the leader who did the most to reclaim biblical Judea and Samaria for the Jews. But it also means continued destabilisation and tensions, which sooner or later will lead to violence and suffering.
