This paper presents (position estimation) specialized in the case of Yemen within the regional conflict context, and the role of Arab states in the chaos within the former republic and encircle the pocket Houthi financier and then isolate him. Al-Houthi movement is financed by the Iranian state to choke the Arab Gulf through penetrating the Saudi stability from the southern boundary of the Saudi Kingdom. This is through the following themes:
- The Yamani alliance against the Houthis.
- Al-Houthi area and internal fragmentation.
- The strength and weaknesses of Al-Houthis.
- The Arab role in preserving the Yemeni state integrity and the right of people to choose their representatives.
- Preoccupation with al-Qaeda and the lack of attention to the Houthi threat.
- “The storm” battle and restoring the hope.
- Activation of military action against the Houthis and al-Qaeda together.
- The output of the Yemeni conflict and the end of the stalling in place.
(Dancing on the heads of snakes) as described by the former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh the presiding era of Yemen, which was extended into war and conflicts, to reinforce a united form of the state between the two halves of the republic, with an international and regional support aiming at Imposing foreign agendas on the crown of the Middle East crossings, and the gate to take the most dangerous entry point to the Arabian Gulf. Additionally, a major focus by the Iranian state to regain its fallen glory since 1400 years, which were not enough to convince the Republic of Wali al-Faqih to leave fire policies, and extending the arms outside the official border.
Alliance Yamani against the Houthis
The republic of Yemen politically (To preserve the governorate shape, and the official state entity, as well as seeking to install legitimate authority):
As a result of the existing reality with the possibility of separation of the south from the north parts of the state under the cover of the “Southern Transitional Council” calling for the return of the two parts of Yemen, which consider the division as a major threat to the form of the republic that remained united for continuous two decades. President Hadi is pro a unified state – and courier through legitimacy of his government, and states supporting the Arab coalition against terrorism – to limit the conflict between legitimacy and the Houthi rebellion, rather than dispersed for an interest in internal divisions to strengthen the position of Al- Houthis, and weaken the coalition to seek an end to the danger of chaos or the control over Iran’s ally in Yemen.
In this context, the Yemeni presidency sponsored the establishment of the southern political component supporting the legitimacy of President Mansour Hadi, and dismissive of calls for secession adopted by southern forces, through Inclusion of political parties all Including: People’s Congress (President Hadi Wing), and reform, the southern peaceful movement, nationalist and Baathist currents and Nazareth, as well as leaders of the Southern resistance, South and civil society forces Within the so-called (Southern National Coalition), who missed the accused by the Socialist Party to participate in the armed conflict against the legitimate .
Based on the situation that is called by southern Alliance, in agreement with the Yemeni government, it results in a federal state that guarantees a correction of the status quo on the basis of national, Arab and international authorities, represented by the Gulf initiative and executive mechanism, as well as the national dialogue and its outputs and international resolutions; Carries a call from a late realization of the situation fragility, and the possibility of systemic collapse in the state.
The Republic of Yemen in the military context (Al-Houthi area, and internal fragmentation)
Despite the containment effort exerted by the Arab alliance in support of the legitimacy, with a premium position to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in order to achieve internal cohesion of Yemeni, and contributes to the curb of Al-Hothi’s encroachment, but the ground dispersion has become an operational feature of the military danger in the state of tribal armed alliances, with equipment’s combat that stands in contradiction of a united field against the legitimacy enemy (Al-Houthi). In addition to what was resulted in the control of Al-Houthi in the Yemeni capital, and the subsequent internal confrontations in the official armed forces; which all together produced several such as the South Transitional Council, described the legitimate government of the separatist.
The conflict situation of the Yemeni field characteristics, make it closer the focus of depletion of all parties, rather than a stick to break, where one party will settle the point to their side, this is due to several reasons, such as what is owned by each party of internal strengths and weaknesses drawn in his possession, What cancels aa place possibilities of final conflict cut-down.
Houthis (strengths, weaknesses and reservoirs)
Al-Houthis relied on several points of strength:
- Internal cohesion of their intentions, and the inability to penetrate the military and political entity, and their agreement on the leadership reference represented by Abdul-Malik al-Houthi.
- An unstandardized support, and extensive expertise provided to the Iranian experts for aggressive ground operations, and carried out by Al-Houthi field groups that is based on combat in addition to anti-armor and anti-personnel systems, which departs the utility of air reconnaissance systems or reduces it validity to a large degree of media utilities used by the coalition in support of legitimacy.
- In addition to enabling Al-Houthi’s to draw attention towards conflict interests in the other party, some of which emerged within the coalition in support of legitimacy during the Gulf crisis, as well as the legitimate forces through the gate of the secession of the south, and the management of strategic islands such as “Socotra”.
Apparently, the most serious threats to their existence are:
- International recognition limitation of the government legitimacy headed by Al-Hadi president, and the ability of this government, at least partially to represent Yemen in the official forums.
- falling in the Arabs control corner, in which the kingdom of Saudi Arabia represents its hostile head that is against the Iranian project and its tools in Yemen, as well as in the popular scene that is aware of AL-Houthi’s inability for a concreate state administration, as represented in the absence of effective infrastructural services in the cities under their control; this is as stated by the country’s situation experts.
- The dependence on an internationally described system as ”rogue” , in addition to the absence of their international ability to promote their entity existence, which limit their sustainable presence within the international community, that is increasingly taking a side stand from Iran and it’s alliances, especially after the arrival of Trump’s administration to the White House.
The Arab States role in preserving the governorate entity of the Yemeni state, and the people right to select their representatives
The official regional situation throughout the Middle East was not in the best shape to face emerged demonstrations under the name of the “Arab Spring”, which formed a political shake on all levels i.e. military, security, economic and social levels in the influenced countries, Including Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Yemen and Syria. The “Arab Spring” earthquake included countries that have not directly affected, rather placed into an impotent and involved at the same time, in front of their systems to support people rights, or support falling systems and lost regimes since the very first moments of the civil movement in the Arab countries.
The Yemeni situation grasped a special attention from the gulf countries, between attempts to comprehend the movement according to the popular demands, and the need for maintaining the Governorate prestige of the central state, and the consequences of its collapse, this is according to the gulf vision; as any mess in the Yemeni scene, will produce a risk of Al-Qaeda expansion, which was back then the only semi-organized entity in Yemen, who owns military property. In results, any potential mess in the state, will result in a great risk that threatens the security and stability of the region, as well as the whole world. Hence, was the negligence that allowed the return of Iran’s efforts to the uniqueness of the Yemeni arena, according to the Iranian project in transferring its sectarian revolution sectarian, and establishing security zones, similarly to the southern suburb of Beirut in Lebanon.
Focus on the danger of radical Sunni organizations obscurantism and the lack of attention to the risk of sectarian rebellion and underestimated led of political disaster, and security at the gates of the southern Gulf, exploited by parties to the conflict of Yemen, including:
- The Former President Ali Abdullah Saleh sought by enabling the Houthis of the joints of the sovereign state in the army and the capital, To the stability of the theory that the only safety option in Yemen, before the situation get out of hands, and becomes a lifeless body.
- Iran took n advantage of the fears experienced by the world of al-Qaeda, to enable Al-Houthi’s influence after converting the Islamic religious doctrine from the Zaidi coexisting groups with their surroundings, to a described case of extremism, and an organized distance from the Yemeni environment secured by extension to the reference Wali al-Faqih and governance of the Iranian Supreme Leader.
- Al Qaeda: who benefited from the chaos, overlapping issues, and the absence of regional compass, in control of the Crew 27 Mika’s Second Military District, after entering the city of Al-Mukalla in 2015, and control of the Central Bank branch including billions of Yemeni riyals, which reinforced its tribal influence in the surroundings of Hadramout.
The Storm Battel, and its re-hope (The kingdom of Saudi Arabia operations to bridge the Yemeni rift)
After the arrival of King Salman to the Saudi throne, and arranging Al-Ryiadh internal house, the kingdom announced a military campaign Called “The Storm battel” in Yemen, with the support of other allied countries, in order to control the Houthi rebellion, and to promote national dialogue, what was perceived by observers a step in the Kingdom foreign policies, that will allow a bound of Iranian hidden desires in the country behind the Houthi rebellion.
The Arab Alliance (An activation of military action against Al-Houthis and al-Qaeda)
The kingdom of Saudi Arabia decision was announced their leadership of an alliance storm battel in April 2015, by the termination of military operations, and start of implementation of resettlement plans called “restoring hope” after an invitation of President Hadi for negotiations with all involved internal parties under the Gulf sponsorship. Those negotiations, aimed to impose a political reality that secures a cover for operations to restore stability and reconstruction in the country, But the conflicting military situation on the ground, in terms of the effectiveness of the spread of al-Qaeda, as well as to what it described as the legitimate government of Yemen in Al-Houthi attempts to impose a non-negotiable situation through arms, led to a reformation of the Arab coalition to support legitimacy. This re-formation have re-activated military operations and continued a call to contribute to what the alliance described a continuation of Yemen release from Al- Houthis.
The outputs of the Yemeni conflict, and an end to the corrosion caused by “stalling in the place”
Likewise all other controversial issues in the Arab Spring countries, Yemen’s ranges in the sands of moving, the fighting groups is sinking more and the complexity of the terrible situation is arising, which have pushed active ring countries in the regional context to accommodate the Yemeni situation by breaking the political deadlock through making concessions within any possible line available. The sclerosis that may lead to serious regional threats does not stop at termination of a one united states to two northern and southern states with conflicts, but also could lead to formation of tribal emirates, and areas of regional and international influence similar to the Afghan situation after the collapse of the Soviet union and exit the Russian occupation troops from the Afghan state, which are similar to the case of the Yemeni reality to a remarkable extent. This is through repeated data such as:
- The complex geographical Yemeni position: in which the nature of Afghanistan is close, this conjunction makes the scope of Hadramout another Panjsher that drains any approaching entity.
- The influential tribal status in itself, and the financing sources, producing parallel countries to the fragile mother state.
- The Iranian role represented in Qassem Soleimani in spreading chaos and trouble feed using the side of Afghanistan in support of Ahmad Shah Massoud forces, who teamed up with Abdul Rashid Dostum -The fighter’s pro-soviet and previously a commander of the national movement of the Uzbek minority – In the establishment of the United Islamic front for the rescue of Afghanistan, known globally as the Northern Alliance; where the supply route passed through the State of Tajikistan (The Persian-speaking state), which is what he is doing today in Yemen.
The President Hadi’s call which was presented at the beginning of this paper is to stick to an independent state, with concessions in the central state represented by the strict era unity of the former President Saleh. This would fall into an interest of forming a powerful union that ensure the state’s continued existence, and brings together the largest spectrum of Yemenis in their war against the remnants of the former regime, as well as against Al-Houthis, and Al-Takfiri organizations. This shall be implemented within a comprehensive policy ensuring a recovery phase of Yemen within the Arab frame, and specifically the Gulf gate.
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