Dr. Sami Khater – Academic and University Professor
As the doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih enters its fifth decade, the system faces unprecedented challenges that seriously threaten its survival. At the center of these challenges stands Ali Khamenei himself, the leader of the clerical republic— not only the principal symbol of this authoritarian order, but increasingly one of its most intractable problems. Recent developments inside Iran and across the region clearly indicate that the era of the “eternal Supreme Leader” is nearing its end, and that Khamenei is now encircled by domestic unrest and regional predicaments.
For years, the regime’s propaganda machine has tried to craft an unbreakable, forceful image of Khamenei. Yet field realities and rigorous analyses point to an extremely fragile situation. Nationwide protests across Iran, accompanied by chants of “Death to the dictator” directed explicitly at Khamenei, reveal how drastically the regime’s social base has eroded.
These uprisings, which began in 2017 and culminated in the 2022 protests, showed not only that public anger is deep and widespread, but that the Iranian people increasingly view the complete overthrow of this system as the solution. In this context, the role of women and youth—particularly the “Resistance Units” affiliated with the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (MEK)—has been unparalleled in organizing and leading these demonstrations.
Regionally, the regime’s interventionist policies and heavy investment in proxy groups have not only destabilized the Middle East but have also backfired against the regime itself. Recent attacks in the region—especially strategic strikes targeting Tehran-aligned factions—indicate a shifting balance of power. These developments have increasingly weakened the regime’s regional grip and reduced its bargaining capacity.
Khamenei, once considered the chief architect of the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” is now witnessing its gradual disintegration. This has imposed immense pressure on him and on the regime’s key decision-makers. Prominent analysts writing in newspapers such as Asharq Al-Awsat and Al-Arab have repeatedly highlighted this fragility and the widening regional impasse.
To confront these crises, the regime has resorted to heightened internal repression and escalating violence. Mass executions, arbitrary arrests, and blatant human-rights abuses remain core tools for ensuring the regime’s survival. Yet these measures have only deepened the rift between the people and the state. Iranian society is no longer willing to tolerate such levels of brutality and injustice. At the same time, the looming succession crisis has become one of the regime’s most significant vulnerabilities. The absence of a consensus candidate and the emergence of internal rivalries in a post-Khamenei era could drive the system into a period of instability and internal collapse.
Meanwhile, the organized Iranian resistance—led by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) and the MEK—continues to play a central role in exposing the regime’s nature and presenting a democratic alternative. Drawing on four decades of struggle and heavy sacrifice, this resistance movement has kept alive the Iranian people’s quest for liberation. Maryam Rajavi, the NCRI’s president-elect, has outlined a Ten-Point Plan for Iran’s future, offering a clear vision for a free, secular, and democratic country. The plan addresses not only political and civil liberties but places particular emphasis on women’s rights, minority rights, and social justice.
In Conclusion
Khamenei and the regime he leads are experiencing their weakest moment to date. Besieged by internal crises stemming from nationwide uprisings and by regional deadlocks caused by failed foreign policies, the end of this dictatorship appears closer than ever. The future of Iran belongs to its people, who are paving their way toward freedom and democracy with the support of the organized resistance.
