Libya: Books in Tripoli, Troops in the Sahara
In late October, I spent a few days in Tripoli and attended a book fair organised by the Attorney General’s Office and its Criminal Research and Training Center, together with the Libyan Ministry of Culture. That made me think the event was also an opportunity to show that the Prosecution’s role goes beyond investigation and prosecution to include encouraging knowledge and public awareness. Some 440 publishers from 29 countries were present, twice as many as in 2024, and it was also good to see France represented.
This was not the Libya that normally gets the headlines. Yet, as I walked around between the stands, meeting Libyan officials and civil society representatives, decisions were being made elsewhere that may well be more important to Libya’s future than anything being said in the capital at that point. On the day I arrived at Mitiga International Airport, the Niger Defence Minister was in Algiers, and the eastern-based parliament had voted to ratify a maritime deal with Turkey, which they had previously rejected for six years. A few days later, the Algerian parliament approved its first military deployment abroad since 1973. The first Algerian troops have now arrived in Niger, and the resolution states that their destination will be Madama, a former French base just south of the Libyan border. Official Algiers’ justification for this deployment is the protection of both Algeria and Niger energy and economic interests, namely Sonatrach’s oil projects in Niger.
As Libya continues to be a ‘house divided’, its future is increasingly being shaped on its margins, in the Sahara and in foreign capitals, at a moment when Tripoli itself is showing signs of normality and openness. Since 2014, Libya has had rival authorities, with a UN-recognised government in Tripoli today and an administration in the east backed by Marshal Khalifa Haftar. The capital feels relatively safe, with police and security forces visible on the streets. Direct flights between Tripoli and Paris have resumed, and in April the country adopted its first unified budget since 2013. Walking around, Tripoli felt like any other North African city.
But it is in the south where the competition is most visible. In June, Niger signed a military cooperation memorandum with the Tripoli government. On 1 November, its prime minister was in Benghazi signing a “strategic cooperation” protocol with Saddam Haftar, whose relations with Algiers are strained. Niamey doesn’t seem to choose a side, it is rather trying to play its cards the best way possible, and Algeria’s troop deployment to Madama gives it one more card to play, perhaps.
For Tripoli, the risk is becoming a mere observer of these movements and realignments. Ankara, long the government’s main military backer, now courts Benghazi as well, and the eastern parliament’s vote on the maritime deal showed how quickly old enmities can be traded for new partnerships when security is volatile in the region and beyond. The vote angered Athens and Brussels, and it put Haftar’s camp at odds with Cairo, its oldest backer. Saddam Haftar, the marshal’s son and deputy commander, stands behind many of those moves. He signed the protocol with Niger, welcomed the deal with Ankara, and, according to some sources, is seen as Dbeibah’s partner in a power-sharing arrangement promoted by Washington. Talks under UN auspices promise elections within two years. Still, the map of influence and foreign interference, including in the information space, around Libya is being redrawn much faster than its institutions are being reunified.
But Libya also presents opportunities. This summer, oil production reached its highest level since 2013, and international companies are returning. Yet the economy rests almost entirely on hydrocarbons, with oil providing about 95% of public revenue, and some two million Libyans are paid in this or that way by the state. Every oil field closure is therefore felt directly in households across the country. Everything depends on stability in the south, home to major oil fields such as El Sharara and El Feel.
It may be a banal statement, but Libya needs reforms to capitalise on opportunities. Without a more efficient administration and a diversification of state revenues, neither stability nor development can last. The same is true for security and Libya needs modern means to control its vast southern border, first to protect itself from the trafficking and armed groups that move across the Sahara, and also to curb the illegal migration that transits through the country towards Europe. The new technologies, such as drones and robotics in the military, may be an answer to these questions.
In Europe, we tend to treat Libya as a migration or security file only. But we should readjust our approach, especially with Brent crude oil at around $100 a barrel and the Gulf unsettled; a stable Libya a few hundred kilometres from Europe’s coasts serves our interests as much as it serves Libyans. France, in particular, can also do better. During my visit, I heard grievances from ordinary Libyans and officials about the impossibility of applying for a French visa in Libya. Those who want to travel to France still have to file their visa applications in Tunis or Cairo, since no French consular service issues visas in Tripoli. And it seems the Quai d’Orsay is not blocking it, but Place Beauvau. By contrast, Italian consulates process applications in both Tripoli and Benghazi and have issued many visas to Libyans. If Rome can do it, so can Paris. With direct flights now restored, opening visa services at least in Tripoli would be a logical move forward and would cost little while sending a clear signal to the active part of the Libyan society.
Libya’s next years seem to depend less on Libyans’ resilience, signs of which I saw during my trip, than on what their neighbours and partners choose to invest in. And France has a role to play in that choice. A few days ago, both Libyan chiefs of staff, Khaled Haftar from the east and Salah al-Namroush from Tripoli, were received by their French counterpart, General Fabien Mandon. Paris can talk to both sides and should use that access to hear what help Libya requires to improve its security.
